Last week's board flagged four metrics as "rising." Run each move against its own sampling error and none of them clears the noise band this week — the arrows are directional, not real change. That doesn't mean nothing is wrong. Two things survive the test, and neither is a weekly wiggle: a 12-month climb in AI-failure language, and a large, stable causal link that turns failed chats into one-star reviews. This board separates the two so you act on the mechanism, not the noise.
This is the sentence the rest of the board is footnotes to. It doesn't move week to week because it isn't a trend — it's how the system converts a broken conversation into a public review. You don't fix a 6.9× risk ratio by watching it; you fix it by shrinking the thing on the wrong side of it: the failed-chat inflow.
Read the vertical distance, not the horizontal wiggle. Containment alone says everything is fine; the honest number is the resolution line, and the gap between them is the defect. When the gap widens past its band, the one-star tail grows the next week — but a one-week bump in either line, on its own, tells you nothing.
This is the payoff of separating signal from noise: the intervention isn't "improve the metrics," it's one specific routing change on four intents, and the causal link tells you the size of the prize before you spend a dollar. The band on the projection is wide — treat ~20% as the center of a range, not a promise — but the direction and mechanism are not in doubt.
Quotes, first claim notices, billing, and renewals are handled end to end. Complaints and claim-status chases dead-end on firm samples — those are safe to act on now. Cancellations also dead-end 100% of the time, but on 13 sessions the interval runs 77–100%: directionally alarming, worth confirming next week before you build a metric around it. Same lens, applied to the queue: act on the firm findings, watch the thin ones.
Route complaints, disputes, cancellations, and stalled claim-status chats to a human on first contact. This is the one intervention the causal link says will move the public score — worth ~11pp of one-star share.
Four "rising" flags this week are all inside their confidence bands. Gate every alert on clearing its CI, so the team stops spending cycles chasing sampling noise and reacts only to real change.
Two things are real: the 18-pt containment gap (CI excludes 0) and the AI-failure climb since Jan '25 (trend p<0.05). Put both on standing alert — they're the signals that survive the test.